After more than three years of war, the prospects of peace for Ukraine remain slim. There is no obvious credible pathway even to a ceasefire, given Russia's refusal to extend a brief and shaky truce over Easter. This, despite the US, UK and Ukraine all signalling their support for this idea. And even if the considerable hurdles impeding a ceasefire deal could be overcome, a more fundamental problem would remain. None of the key players in the conflict appear to have a plan for an agreement that is likely to be acceptable to Kyiv and Moscow. Previous plans, such as a joint proposal by China and Brazil in May last year which was supported by a Chinese-led 'Friends of Peace' group were primarily focused on a ceasefire as a stepping stone to negotiations about an actual peace agreement. This and other plans were all light on detail of what a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine would entail but were nonetheless roundly rejected by Ukraine and its western allies as favouring Russia. Given that a ceasefire would simply freeze the front lines and very likely make them permanent with or without a subsequent peace agreement, this was not an unreasonable position....
Saudi Arabia is 2,000 miles from Ukraine and even more politically distant, so at first glance it might seem like it has nothing to do with the ongoing war there. But the Gulf state has emerged as a key intermediary in the most serious ceasefire negotiations since Russia invaded its neighbor three years ago. In a flurry of diplomatic activity on March 10, 2025, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the country's top political authority, hosted separate meetings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and a U.S. delegation led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and national security adviser Mike Waltz. The resulting agreement, which is now being mulled in Moscow, is all the more notable given that it followed a diplomatic breakdown just weeks before at the Oval Office between Zelenskyy, President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance. Whether the proposed interim 30-day ceasefire materializes is still uncertain. On March 14, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he agreed with the proposal in principle, but he added that a lot of the details needed to be sorted out....
Kyiv has proved several times that it will veto any agreement to put them under Russian control....
Bloody fighting between depleted militaries will continue to barely move the frozen front lines. Russian missile and drone raids will still pummel Ukrainian cities and terrorize their citizens. Gutsy, covert Ukrainian strikes will hit deep behind the Russian border. But a new, and likely final, chapter in the nearly three-year conflict began today with a confluence of clear signals from the United States that it will no longer back Kyiv's goals in the war, all but ensuring that Ukraine will not regain its sovereign territory or achieve its most sought-after security guarantees. Ukrainians have warily watched Donald Trump reclaim power, knowing his longtime deference toward Russian President Vladimir Putin and having heard his promise to end the conflict 'in 24 hours,' which always seemed like a way to codify Russian war gains. Although Trump failed in fulfilling that pledge, he has made no secret of wanting to bring about a quick end to the fighting. 'We each talked about the strengths of our respective Nations, and the great benefit that we will someday have in working together,' Trump wrote on Truth Social after the call. 'But first, as we both agreed, we want to stop the millions of deaths taking place in the War with Russia/Ukraine. President Putin even used my very strong Campaign motto of 'COMMON SENSE.'' Only afterward did Trump call Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky 'to inform him of the conversation.'...
