As the coronavirus continues its march around the world, governments have turned to proven public health measures, such as social distancing, to physically disrupt the contagion. Yet, doing so has severed the flow of goods and people, stalled economies, and is in the process of delivering a global recession. Economic contagion is now spreading as fast as the disease itself.
This didnât look plausible even a few weeks ago. As the virus began to spread, politicians, policy makers, and markets, informed by the pattern of historical outbreaks, looked on while the early (and thus more effective and less costly) window for social distancing closed. Now, much further along the disease trajectory, the economic costs are much higher, and predicting the path ahead has become nearly impossible, as multiple dimensions of the crisis are unprecedented and unknowable.
In this uncharted territory, naming a global recession adds little clarity beyond setting the expectation of negative growth. Pressing questions include the path of the shock and recovery, whether economies will be able to return to their pre-shock output levels and growth rates, and whether there will be any structural legacy from the coronavirus crisis....
On Monday March 9, in an effort to address soaring patient demand in Boston, Partners HealthCare went live with a hotline for patients, clinicians, and anyone else with questions and concerns about Covid-19. The goals are to identify and reassure the people who do not need additional care (the vast majority of callers), to direct people with less serious symptoms to relevant information and virtual care options, and to direct the smaller number of high-risk and higher-acuity patients to the most appropriate resources, including testing sites, newly created respiratory illness clinics, or in certain cases, emergency departments. As the hotline became overwhelmed, the average wait time peaked at 30 minutes. Many callers gave up before they could speak with the expert team of nurses staffing the hotline. We were missing opportunities to facilitate pre-hospital triage to get the patient to the right care setting at the right time.
The Partners team, led by Lee Schwamm, Haipeng (Mark) Zhang, and Adam Landman, began considering technology options to address the growing need for patient self-triage, including interactive voice response systems and chatbots. We connected with Providence St. Joseph Health system in Seattle, which served some of the countryâs first Covid-19 patients in early March. In collaboration with Microsoft, Providence built an online screening and triage tool that could rapidly differentiate between those who might really be sick with Covid-19 and those who appear to be suffering from less threatening ailments. In its first week, Providenceâs tool served more than 40,000 patients, delivering care at an unprecedented...
On the way to a recent barbecue, I dropped by a local gourmet market to pick up ingredients to make my famous Korean-style ribs. While the butcher was initially thrilled with my unexpectedly large 30 pound order, his mood soured when I asked him to thinly slice the ribs âflanken styleâ (cut parallel to the ribs). After 20 minutes of intense slicing (and several reminders to âslice it thinnerâ), the meat was ornately packaged and ready to go. Then, out of curiosity â letâs call it âresearchâ â I asked if I was entitled to a volume discount since I was buying so much. Without giving it a second thought, the butcher chopped the per pound price from $8 to $6. As a consumer I appreciated the $60 savingsâbut as a consultant who helps businesses optimize their pricing, I wondered if the butcher realized how much of the storeâs operating profit margin disappeared due to his hastily-considered discount....