Since 1850, the U.S. has gone through cycles of protectionism and antitrust activity, but the two have never coincided —until now. The U.S. has shifted markedly towards protectionist policy, increasing tariffs over the past 18 months while simultaneously launching a series of antitrust investigations (into Big Tech and the auto industry, to name just two). Protectionist cycles usually last about a decade, while antitrust cycles extend further.
Each cycle is driven by a different set of fundamental forces. Protectionism stems from concerns over foreign influence and a desire to maintain the international status quo. Antitrust activity, by contrast, is driven by the desire to change the domestic status quo by increasing competition and weakening entrenched interests. During and after each antitrust cycle, the U.S. economy experienced higher GDP growth along with higher inflation. By contrast, the end of protectionist cycles is marked by major shifts in the global political-economic...
learn more
