A lot of mathematical models of coronavirus spread can be unreliable
Recently, a modelling study conducted by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) predicted 2.87 lakh coronavirus cases in India per day by the end of winter 2021 in the absence of a COVID-19 vaccine or drug intervention. In a pre-print paper, MIT professors Hazhir Rahmandad and John Sterman, and PhD candidate Tse Yang Lim, noted that the top ten countries by projected daily infection rates at the end of winter 2021 are India with 2.87 lakh infections per day, followed by the US, South Africa, Iran, Indonesia, the UK, Nigeria, Turkey, France, and Germany.
The study has come under a fair bit of flak, with the Union health ministry stating that the lacunae of many mathematical models is that they just focus on how the virus would behave and not take into account other parameters. The ministry said instead of spending a lot of time on these models, focusing on containment, surveillance, testing and treatment...
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